Sean Barnard dives into the top player prop bets ahead of the NBA slate on November 29.
As our stomachs return to normal following a day filled with Thanksgiving food and football, the NBA season powers on. 10 NBA games are tipping off throughout the day starting at noon on the East Coast and going all the way through the normal night time slots to conclude the night.
The New York Knicks will face off with the Hornets in the first game as Charlotte is set to be without six notable rotation players. The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to maintain their NBA-best record in the next game, tipping off at 2:30 PM EST against the Atlanta Hawks. Then at 5:10 PM EST, the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans are set to face off.
Looking at the typical night slate of games, the Orlando Magic will play the Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Clippers will face off against the Minnesota Timberwolves each at 7:30 PM EST. There are three games in the 8:00 PM EST slate taking place between the Celtics and Bulls, Pistons and Pacers, and Raptors and Heat. Finally, the night will be concluded by two 10:00 PM EST tip-offs occurring between the Lakers and Thunder as well as the Kings and Trail Blazers.
You can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, but here are my favorite player props for November 29.
James Harden Under 22.5 Points (-120)
We are fresh off a vintage James Harden performance in which he dropped 43 points against the Washington Wizards the last time he was on the floor. This marked his first 40-point performance since March 2021. Harden will return to the court again today, and expect some scoring regression.
On the season overall, Harden is averaging 21.6 points per game and has been held under 22.5 points in 12 of the 20 games. As a team, the Clippers produce 109.3 points per game which is the seventh-lowest number across the league. They will face off with the Minnesota Timberwolves today who are in a bit of a rut themselves. Minnesota has lost four consecutive games leading into this matchup and is still looking to recapture the defensive dominance that was put on display last year. Led by Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the perimeter defense has remained a bright spot in the Timberwolves’ defense. Opposing starting point guards are shooting just 39.8% from the field this season which is the worst rate in the league.
Opposing point guards are also attempting just 3.3 free throws per game over the last 15 games when facing the Timberwolves which is the fifth-worst rate in the NBA. While his 7.3 free-throw attempts are not as egregious of output as has been the case in past years with Harden, this still is an area he may not find production. Expect Harden to come back to earth a little bit and remain under 22.5 points against a tough defense tonight.
RJ Barrett Over 25.5 Points & Assists (-115)
The Toronto Raptors are set to face off with the Miami Heat tonight. Toronto is set to be without Gradey Dick, Immanuel Quickley, and Bruce Brown for this matchup. The absence of Dick and Quickley will put even more offensive responsibility on the plate of RJ Barrett who has looked up to the challenge this season.
So far this year, Barrett has averaged 22.8 points and 6.3 assists per game. He has gone over 25.5 combined points and assists in 10 of the 16 games he has played. His growth as a playmaker this season has been especially impressive. Barrett has tallied as many as 15 assists in a game and reached double-digit assists in four separate games. The 6.3 assists he is averaging is a career-high and looks by design in the offense. He has been granted more freedom and is delivering for the team.
While the playmaking has popped to start the year, I like the combined point and assist props due to the shorthanded nature of the Raptors. Barrett is also attempting a career-high 18.9 field goal attempts per game. Miami is a solid defensive team, but there will be far too much volume on Barrett’s plate for the output not to occur. Look for him to record over 25.5 points and assists for the 11th time already this season.
Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points (-105)
The Indiana Pacers will host the Detroit Pistons tonight and continue to be without Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, Isaiah Jackson, and James Wiseman. Despite holding a place on the perennial trade rumors list for several years, Myles Turners has become a key part of this Pacers team. So far this season he is averaging 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks.
Turner logs 32.5 minutes per game and his ability to connect from the perimeter will be especially valuable in this game. On the season overall he is attempting 5.2 three-pointers per game and connecting at a 39.8% rate. Expect Pistons’ big man Jalen Duren to get the primary matchup with Turner. Duren is allowing 1.4 made three-pointers per game to opponents this season. This ranks in the 4th percentile among centers as defenders.
While the 16.4 points per game is a solid output, his best offensive stretch of the season likely has not yet occurred. Turner averaged 17.1 points per game last year and 18.0 the season before. Even still, look for Turner to take advantage of his perimeter abilities and record over 16.5 against the youthful Pistons squad.
Austin Reaves Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)
In one of the two late games tonight, the Los Angeles Lakers are set to face the Oklahoma City Thunder. It has been a bit of an up-and-down season, but the Lakers sit in fifth place in the Western Conference with an 11-7 record thus far. While a few players have a case, Austin Reaves has been among the biggest beneficiaries of the new-look J.J. Redick-led offense.
So far this season, Reaves has averaged 17.1 points, 4.9 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. He has gone over 22.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 12 of the 18 games this year. This game is also set to take place in Los Angeles where Reaves has had even greater success this year. He is averaging 18.2 points, 5.7 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game when playing at the Crypto.com Arena. Oklahoma City also has played at a quicker speed when playing on the road, ranking 4th in pace in road games this season.
Expect some additional offensive opportunities to occur as the Thunder push the pace and for Reaves to continue to be a key part of the Lakers’ production. He has become much more of a decision-maker in the flow of Los Angeles’ play and Redick has shown trust in the 26-year-old. Reaves has not shown a fear of the spotlight in big games and look for him to be ready for the challenge against an impressive Thunder team. Count on him to eclipse 22.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists for the 13th time already this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.