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MUNDO
Film Forecast ‘24: Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals, 10/19
The Miami Hurricanes (6-0) are heading to Louisville to take on the Cardinals (4-2) on Saturday, October 19th at at Noon.
The Hurricanes are undefeated and coming off their idle week while Louisville is trying to salvage their season after two tough losses and a come from behind win over UVA.
The Doppler
Per the SP+ analytics system, Miami is the 8th best team in FBS. The Hurricanes offense is 3rd, defense 34th and kicking game is 37th. The Louisville Cardinals are 20th overall, 28th on offense, 28th on defense and a measly 106th in kicking.
Compare that to Virginia Tech who has the 44th offense and 42nd defense, and Cal who has the 56th offense and 37th defense and Miami could be in for another dogfight with UofL on Saturday.
The ‘Canes are still the best team in the nation in 3rd down offense converting 59% of the time. Louisville is 57th converting on 41% of their money downs.
Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images
On defense, Miami is 22nd in the country allowing opponents to convert only 32% of their third downs, while Louisville is 18th in the nation in holding opponents to converting just 31% of their money downs.
When it comes to turnover margin per game, Miami is 54th in FBS at +0.2 while Louisville is 77th at -0.2. This is a game that could absolutely come down to a field goal, turnover, or costly penalty. Miami is 125th in FBS with 78.6 penalty yards per game while the Cards are 69th with 55 PYPG.
The Cards have average punting success, their kicker has missed four field goals (but is perfect on PAT’s) and their return game has been average this season.
Compared to Miami who has excellent kickers and punters and a dynamic kick returner in Chris Johnson Jr. However, the UM punt return team is still a question mark.
The Film
We’re going to check out UofL’s come from behind victory over a 4-2 UVA squad as our film review for the game. The Cards knocked off the Cavaliers 24-20 in Charlottesville over a pesky Hoos squad that’s turned itself around for Tony Elliott this season.
The Cards Offense
Louisville has averaged 36.2 points per game this season which is good for 23rd of 134 FBS programs. Against UVA, Tyler Shough averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt with one TD and one INT. That was under Shough’s typical YPA average of 9.1, and was only his 3rd interception of the season.
Isaac Brown averaged 7.3 yards per carry with two scores on 20 carries for the Cards. Chris Bell and Ja’Cory Brooks are two explosive receiving options that should scare ‘Canes fans after some weak DB play the past two weeks.
Bell has averaged 19.5 YPC while Brooks has picked up 19.1 per grab. The duo has eight receiving TD’s this season. Four different skills had an explosive reception against UVA.
UVA’s defense also racked up two sacks and six TFL’s vs. Louisville. The Cards offense struggled on third down converting only 30% of their tries and failing on their one 4th down attempt.
Above– This is a split zone run concept with a slide RPO tag. This is going to be an issue for Miami. The back flow, the RPO tag, and Brown’s ability to make the first guy miss.. a recipe for success for Brohm’s offense.
Above– Simeon Barrow has been the defensive portal stud this season. Elite DT play will be necessary against the UofL run game. I have no doubt Barrow can shoot a gap while Mauigoa fills behind him for a TFL.
Above– What’s hurt Miami is QB’s that can extend plays or scramble for yards with their legs. That version of Tyler Shough is long gone. He isn’t the run threat that even Fernando Mendoza was for Cal and definitely not a Kyron Drones or Byrum Brown type.
Above– Tackling had better have been a bye week focus for Cristobal’s staff. The Brohm’s are absolutely going to try to make Mauigoa work horizontal and attack the cornerbacks and safeties in space.
Above– Vision is such a key component to a zone running back. Knowing to work slow to and fast through while tempo-ing your pace is huge in a zone scheme.
Above– An absolute “What scares me” concept against the Cards. The line pulls two right while tossing left. An H-Back blocks the CB to the sideline and the back cuts under that block. Miami’s CB’s are going to get crushed by this concept.
This is this toss VT ran vs. Miami but on steroids. The only saving grace is Shough isn’t a run threat on a read or fake.
Above– A fake screen and go to the TE? This also scares me a bit about L’ville. They’ve seen the tape and the Brohm Brothers will certainly look for these type of advantages.
Above– Play-action boots with a slide concept have been a staple of offenses for decades. They’re extremely effective against aggressive defenses with poor eye discipline like Miami. When the safeties and linebackers play hero ball this can be quite effective.
Above– Another play-action this time with a high-low concept attached. UVA’s LBs are all piled up at the left seam (offensively) and the ball goes to the right seam to a wide open threat.
The Cards Defense
The Cards defense has allowed only 19.7 PPG this season which is good for 31st in FBS. UVA QB Anthony Colandrea racked up nearly 400 total yards on 6.2 yards per pass attempt with one touchdown and no turnovers.
L’ville held RB Kobe Pace to just 3.8 yards per rush, while four Hoos had explosive receptions against the Cards defense.
The Cards defense logged three sacks and nine TFL’s with eight PBU’s. DL Ashton Gillotte picked up a sack and TFL on his own.
Above– Ward isn’t a ‘run first’ kind of guy but he might need to borrow a page from Anthony Colandrea from UVA. The Hoos used read option plays to take advantage of English liking to bring pressure and coaching a Guidry-style defense. Colandrea also uses a wider release to avoid scrape exchange LB’ers.
Above– UVA checks to read option with an Arc’ing H as a lead blocker. When DC’s get caught on a read option they typically will tell the DE to continue to chase and squeeze the RB and have a LB or S come over the top to punish a QB that thought he read the DE right. With how valuable Ward is to Miami’s offense I would send an H as his lead blocker.
Above– Louisville is similar on defense to Miami. They whiff on tackles in space and this could be one of those Xavier Restrepo goes off games (when isn’t it though really?)
Above- Ashton Gillotte was a non-factor in the 2023 game and L’ville still won. I can’t see him not coming away with a big game two years in a row. He’s too versatile of a player to be shut out again. I can see why Jalen Rivers is in a ‘must be back’ situation.
Above– What else scares me about the Cards? They blocked a punt vs. UVA. While Dylan Joyce is a hell of a punter, I just don’t have much faith in Mario Cristobal as a kicking game coach.
Above– Could this be a sign of Ward to Arroyo or Riley Williams? What about Chris Johnson Jr. in the flat working or a huge gain? Miami and L’ville are similar pictures of each other.
Above– One thing you can say for the Cards defense is they created PBU’s against UVA. They have 13 PBU’s in six games, with eight coming vs. UVA and a team high five from UCF transfer Corey Thornton.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, Miami has a 55.6% win expectancy over Louisville on the road. The Canyonero Keys to Victory over Louisville are:
1- Show up for your toughest game. One aspect that hurts Miami is that in the current top-10, Mario Cristobal is the only ‘program manager’ coach without a specialty. Steve Sarkisian is clearly an offensive guru, Dan Lanning is a DC at heart- Mario is a CEO. That forces Mario to be in charge of the program culture and focus.
Miami can’t come out slow against the Cards like they have against USF, VT and Cal. Cristobal has to have the fellas ready from the opening kick on the road against a good team. He also has to manage the clock better than ever, and rely on his OC and DC to call great games while Brohm calls his offense and has Ron English at DC.
This is clearly Mario’s time to shine or fade against the only top-25 type of program (while unranked) Miami will face until the ACC Championship Game.
2- Stop Isaac Brown. Brown has averaged 8.6 yards per carry this season on only three TD’s. He’s joined by Duke Watson who has averaged 8.3 YPC with two TD’s. Brown and Don Chaney have been weapons out of the backfield catching passes as well.
3- Play clean football. Cam Ward can’t turn the ball over three times and expect to beat a team that can also score 35+ points per game. Miami’s been playing dormant offenses but will finally see some fire power. The ‘Canes can’t continue to rack up ~10 penalties per game, either. Jacolby George needs to get his head on straight.
Prediction: Louisville by 7. Note: The first time I’ve gone against Miami all season.
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