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Manchester United v Chelsea: Opta say back 30/1 Bet Builder at Old Trafford
Opta are puttng up a 30/1 Bet Builder for Man Utd v Chelsea
Ruben Amorim has been appointed as the new Man Utd manager, but he won’t be involved on Sunday as Chelsea travel to Old Trafford, and Opta Analyst believe it may take some time before he has the desired effect..
- Ruud van Nistelrooy will be in the hot-seat
- Chelsea can still hurt this injured Man Utd side
- Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson are in inspired form
- Look to cards at Old Trafford
- Chelsea to win n 30/1 Bet Builder tip
A lot can happen in the space of a week, can’t it?
With Erik ten Hag now gone at Manchester United – and the promise of Ruben Amorim coming soon – we can be sure that the mood at Old Trafford will have shifted for the visit of Chelsea on Sunday.
But in under a week, is it realistic to expect much in the way of significant change? Let’s have a look.
Don’t expect a brand-new Manchester United
In answer to the question above, no.
Regardless of any managerial change at Old Trafford, this Manchester United team is one that is still very much in Ten Hag’s image. With that comes all the issues that resulted in his sacking.
Ruud van Nistelrooy oversaw an improvement in midweek, but we can’t the EFL Cup as a reliable yardstick. Amorim, meanwhile, won’t be able to get stuck in for another two games.
For those expecting a new manager bounce – four of the six Manchester United managers since Sir Alex Ferguson have won their opening match in charge, while both Louis van Gaal and Ten Hag were beaten – there is no reasonable basis for it to happen here.
It is unlikely that anyone will have been able to have any effective coaching time in what amounts to a handful of hours.
This is a Manchester United team whose most recent league performance against West Ham was a microcosm of their season so far: profligate in front of goal with a tendency to leave the back door open.
Taking away the 0.75 xG from West Ham’s late penalty, United would have won the expected goals battle at the London Stadium. But yet again, they were unable to make their chances count with just four of their 18 attempts on goal hitting the target.
Manchester United are the biggest xG underperformers in the Premier League, with a -6.78 differential between xG (14.78) and goals (eight). For context, their xG is the sixth-highest in the league, while they are the third-lowest goalscorers overall behind Crystal Palace and Southampton.
They also have two of the division’s top four individual xG underperformers in Joshua Zirkzee (fourth) and Bruno Fernandes (top). Fernandes has had more league efforts on goal (28) than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues without scoring, though did finally find the net with a double in the 5-2 EFL Cup win over Leicester City on Wednesday.
Fernandes averages 3.1 shots per game in the league this season, but comes into this match having had five shots in back-to-back league games and at least four in four of his last six top-flight appearances. He added another five efforts against Leicester in the cup and is available at 7/5 to have four or more shots against Chelsea.
But while United did find the net against West Ham through a second-half Casemiro header while a goal down, they have failed to score in four league games games out of seven – including matches against stronger opposition in Aston Villa, Tottenham and Liverpool.
In spite of Fernandes’ eagerness to get off the mark, BTTS: No looks a sensible play at 21/10 given what has gone before. Under 0.5 Manchester United goals could also be an alternative at 4/1.
Cole Palmer is unstoppable
Something else that United need to be wary of with the visit of Chelsea is how to deal with man of the moment Palmer. It is hard to argue that any player in the Premier League is better than the Chelsea star based on current form.
Enzo Maresca had the 22-year-old to thank for their 2-1 league victory against Newcastle last weekend, thanks to a defence-splitting pass that set up the opener and a second-half goal.
Palmer has contributed 45 Premier League goal involvements since joining Chelsea – 29 goals and 16 assists – putting him second to Harry Kane among all players in Europe’s top five leagues.
He is currently on 12 in the league this season, split between seven goals and five assists. With those goals having come from an xG of just 4.79, he is the sixth-highest xG overperformer in the Premier League. His assists, meanwhile, have come from the 25 chances he has created – the equal third-most in the league.
Ostensibly, Palmer is as close to a complete player as you can get at the moment, so 10/11 for a goal or assist at Old Trafford feels like a reasonable price. It is also is hard to dissuade from the 7/5 available for him to score anytime.
That is especially true when accounting for the possibility of a penalty. Palmer is on spot kicks for Chelsea, with one of his league goals having already come from them against Brighton last month. He has never missed a penalty, while Manchester United have already conceded two this season – the equal-most in the league.
Palmer scored in both games against United last season, including a hat-trick in the Blues’ unforgettable late 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge.
If Palmer doesn’t get you, Jackson will
Jackson has generated the second-highest individual xG in the Premier League this season at 6.04, behind only top scorer Erling Haaland. While the Senegalese striker has regularly got into great scoring positions since arriving in England, it is only more recently he has found his killer instinct, scoring six league goals already this season.
His goal against Newcastle last week was his fourth opener of the season, while it also helped him become the third-fastest Chelsea player of all-time to get to 20 non-penalty Premier League goals (44 games).
Those are impressive metrics and he is available at 15/8 to score anytime or 7/1 to open the scoring at Old Trafford.
Jackson’s goal, meanwhile, helped Chelsea to their fourth league victory in six matches, while the only away game in which they have dropped points this season was against second-placed Liverpool. The visitors are worth getting behind at 8/5 to win the match.
Are cards on the… cards?
It would be remiss not to mention the disciplinary records of both teams this season while running through the markets. In short, expect a fiery one.
Chelsea have picked up a league-high 36 yellow cards so far this season – at least seven more than any other team. United, meanwhile, are on 27, which is the equal fourth-highest alongside Southampton, while they have had one red card as well.
Collectively, both teams have picked up a combined average of seven yellow cards per match in 2024-25, with over 5.5 cards available to back at 4/5. Alternatively, there have been a total of 15 Chelsea bookings in their last three matches, so over 3.5 Chelsea cards is appealing at 11/8.
Back 30/1 Bet Builder
Based on everything we have chatted through above, the following Bet Builder is available to back on the sportsbook at 30/1 at Old Trafford on Sunday.
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Saiba mais sobre o veículo
Pedro Rafael Vilela – Repórter da Agência Brasil
O ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), Flávio Dino, reconheceu o caráter constitucional e a repercussão geral sobre a possibilidade, ou não, do reconhecimento da anistia ao crime de ocultação de cadáver, considerado um crime permanente, pois continua se consumando no presente, quando não devidamente esclarecido.
A Lei da Anistia, de 1979, concedeu anistia, uma espécie de extinção de punibilidade, a crimes políticos e outros relacionados, entre 2 de setembro de 1961 e 15 de agosto de 1979, período que abrange boa parte ditadura militar brasileira (1964-1985). A decisão foi divulgada neste domingo (15).
Quando um caso é conhecido e julgado pelo STF com repercussão geral, a decisão passa a ser aplicada por todos os tribunais de instâncias inferiores em casos semelhantes.
O processo em questão trata de uma denúncia apresentada pelo Ministério Público Federal (MPF) ainda em 2015, contra os ex-militares do Exército Sebastião Curió Rodrigues de Moura, o Major Curió, e o tenente-coronel Lício Augusto Ribeiro Maciel. Ambos estiveram à frente de operações contra militantes de esquerda que organizaram uma guerrilha de resistência contra a ditadura, na região do Araguaia, a Guerrilha do Araguaia, na primeira metade da década de 1970, nos chamados ‘anos de chumbo’, período de maior repressão política e autoritarismo estatal no país, comandado pelas Forças Armadas. A denúncia do MPF não foi acolhida em primeira instância nem no Tribunal Regional Federal da 1ª Região (TRF1). Por isso, o órgão interpôs um Recurso Extraordinário com Agravo (ARE), agora admitido pelo STF.
“O debate do presente recurso se limita a definir o alcance da Lei de Anistia relação ao crime permanente de ocultação de cadáver. Destaco, de plano, não se tratar de proposta de revisão da decisão da ADPF 153, mas sim de fazer um distinguishing [distinção] em face de uma situação peculiar. No crime permanente, a ação se protrai [prolonga] no tempo. A aplicação da Lei de Anistia extingue a punibilidade de todos os atos praticados até a sua entrada em vigor. Ocorre que, como a ação se prolonga no tempo, existem atos posteriores à Lei da Anistia”, diz Dino em um trecho da decisão.
Segundo ele, o tipo penal atribuído aos militares neste contexto persiste no tempo.
“O crime de ocultação de cadáver não ocorre apenas quando a conduta é realizada no mundo físico. A manutenção da omissão do local onde se encontra o cadáver, além de impedir os familiares de exercerem seu direito ao luto, configura a prática crime, bem como situação de flagrante”, acrescentou.
Em 2010, a Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos condenou o Brasil pelo desaparecimento forçado de 70 pessoas ligadas à guerrilha. O tribunal internacional determinou que o Brasil investigasse, processasse e punisse os agentes estatais envolvidos, e que localizasse os restos mortais dos desaparecidos.
O relatório da Comissão Nacional da Verdade (CNV), de 2014, revelou que o Major Curió coordenou um centro clandestino de tortura conhecido como Casa Azul, em Marabá, no sul do Pará e atuou no Tocantins, também de forma clandestina, na investigação e captura de militantes contrários à ditadura durante a guerrilha. Sebastião Curió morreu em 2022 e chegou a ser recebido pelo então presidente Jair Bolsonaro no gabinete presidencial, em 2020.
“Ainda estou aqui”
Na fundamentação da decisão, Flávio Dino chega a mencionar o filme Ainda estou aqui, dirigido por Walter Salles e estrelado por Fernanda Torres, que trata da história de desaparecimento do ex-deputado Rubens Paiva durante a ditadura, cujo corpo jamais foi encontrado.
“No momento presente, o filme “Ainda Estou Aqui” – derivado do livro de Marcelo Rubens Paiva e estrelado por Fernanda Torres (Eunice) – tem comovido milhões de brasileiros e estrangeiros. A história do desaparecimento de Rubens Paiva, cujo corpo jamais foi encontrado e sepultado, sublinha a dor imprescritível de milhares de pais, mães, irmãos, filhos, sobrinhos, netos, que nunca tiveram atendidos seus direitos quanto aos familiares desaparecidos. Nunca puderam velá-los e sepultá-los, apesar de buscas obstinadas como a de Zuzu Angel à procura do seu filho”, diz o voto do ministro.
De acordo com o STF, a decisão de Dino reconhece a existência de repercussão geral da matéria, com o objetivo de formar jurisprudência na Corte se a Lei de Anistia se aplica a crimes que continuam a se consumar até o presente, como a ocultação de cadáver. A repercussão geral será agora avaliada pelos demais ministros em sessão virtual do Plenário.
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