Manchester United v Chelsea: Opta say back 30/1 Bet Builder at Old Trafford

Opta are puttng up a 30/1 Bet Builder for Man Utd v Chelsea

Ruben Amorim has been appointed as the new Man Utd manager, but he won’t be involved on Sunday as Chelsea travel to Old Trafford, and Opta Analyst believe it may take some time before he has the desired effect..

A lot can happen in the space of a week, can’t it?

With Erik ten Hag now gone at Manchester United – and the promise of Ruben Amorim coming soon – we can be sure that the mood at Old Trafford will have shifted for the visit of Chelsea on Sunday.

But in under a week, is it realistic to expect much in the way of significant change? Let’s have a look.

In answer to the question above, no.

Regardless of any managerial change at Old Trafford, this Manchester United team is one that is still very much in Ten Hag’s image. With that comes all the issues that resulted in his sacking.

Ruud van Nistelrooy oversaw an improvement in midweek, but we can’t the EFL Cup as a reliable yardstick. Amorim, meanwhile, won’t be able to get stuck in for another two games.

For those expecting a new manager bounce – four of the six Manchester United managers since Sir Alex Ferguson have won their opening match in charge, while both Louis van Gaal and Ten Hag were beaten – there is no reasonable basis for it to happen here.

It is unlikely that anyone will have been able to have any effective coaching time in what amounts to a handful of hours.

This is a Manchester United team whose most recent league performance against West Ham was a microcosm of their season so far: profligate in front of goal with a tendency to leave the back door open.

Taking away the 0.75 xG from West Ham’s late penalty, United would have won the expected goals battle at the London Stadium. But yet again, they were unable to make their chances count with just four of their 18 attempts on goal hitting the target.

Manchester United are the biggest xG underperformers in the Premier League, with a -6.78 differential between xG (14.78) and goals (eight). For context, their xG is the sixth-highest in the league, while they are the third-lowest goalscorers overall behind Crystal Palace and Southampton.

They also have two of the division’s top four individual xG underperformers in Joshua Zirkzee (fourth) and Bruno Fernandes (top). Fernandes has had more league efforts on goal (28) than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues without scoring, though did finally find the net with a double in the 5-2 EFL Cup win over Leicester City on Wednesday.

Fernandes averages 3.1 shots per game in the league this season, but comes into this match having had five shots in back-to-back league games and at least four in four of his last six top-flight appearances. He added another five efforts against Leicester in the cup and is available at 7/5 to have four or more shots against Chelsea.

But while United did find the net against West Ham through a second-half Casemiro header while a goal down, they have failed to score in four league games games out of seven – including matches against stronger opposition in Aston Villa, Tottenham and Liverpool.

In spite of Fernandes’ eagerness to get off the mark, BTTS: No looks a sensible play at 21/10 given what has gone before. Under 0.5 Manchester United goals could also be an alternative at 4/1.

Something else that United need to be wary of with the visit of Chelsea is how to deal with man of the moment Palmer. It is hard to argue that any player in the Premier League is better than the Chelsea star based on current form.

Enzo Maresca had the 22-year-old to thank for their 2-1 league victory against Newcastle last weekend, thanks to a defence-splitting pass that set up the opener and a second-half goal.

Palmer has contributed 45 Premier League goal involvements since joining Chelsea – 29 goals and 16 assists – putting him second to Harry Kane among all players in Europe’s top five leagues.

He is currently on 12 in the league this season, split between seven goals and five assists. With those goals having come from an xG of just 4.79, he is the sixth-highest xG overperformer in the Premier League. His assists, meanwhile, have come from the 25 chances he has created – the equal third-most in the league.

Ostensibly, Palmer is as close to a complete player as you can get at the moment, so 10/11 for a goal or assist at Old Trafford feels like a reasonable price. It is also is hard to dissuade from the 7/5 available for him to score anytime.

That is especially true when accounting for the possibility of a penalty. Palmer is on spot kicks for Chelsea, with one of his league goals having already come from them against Brighton last month. He has never missed a penalty, while Manchester United have already conceded two this season – the equal-most in the league.

Palmer scored in both games against United last season, including a hat-trick in the Blues’ unforgettable late 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge.

Jackson has generated the second-highest individual xG in the Premier League this season at 6.04, behind only top scorer Erling Haaland. While the Senegalese striker has regularly got into great scoring positions since arriving in England, it is only more recently he has found his killer instinct, scoring six league goals already this season.

His goal against Newcastle last week was his fourth opener of the season, while it also helped him become the third-fastest Chelsea player of all-time to get to 20 non-penalty Premier League goals (44 games).

Those are impressive metrics and he is available at 15/8 to score anytime or 7/1 to open the scoring at Old Trafford.

Jackson’s goal, meanwhile, helped Chelsea to their fourth league victory in six matches, while the only away game in which they have dropped points this season was against second-placed Liverpool. The visitors are worth getting behind at 8/5 to win the match.

It would be remiss not to mention the disciplinary records of both teams this season while running through the markets. In short, expect a fiery one.

Chelsea have picked up a league-high 36 yellow cards so far this season – at least seven more than any other team. United, meanwhile, are on 27, which is the equal fourth-highest alongside Southampton, while they have had one red card as well.

Collectively, both teams have picked up a combined average of seven yellow cards per match in 2024-25, with over 5.5 cards available to back at 4/5. Alternatively, there have been a total of 15 Chelsea bookings in their last three matches, so over 3.5 Chelsea cards is appealing at 11/8.

Based on everything we have chatted through above, the following Bet Builder is available to back on the sportsbook at 30/1 at Old Trafford on Sunday.